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Trump’s Chances Look Decent In Pennsylvania & New York


New York, which votes on 19th April, is next stop in North-east & the major prize of all. So far, the polls reveal Donald Trump taking the state by substantial margin. According to a current Quinnipiac poll, Donald Trump leads in state [of Pennsylvania] with 39% of vote

Ted Cruz trails him with 30%; followed by John Kasich with a 24%….No new polls have been led in remaining states. Nevertheless, Donald Trump’s performed well in other Northeastern states & the delegate rules approve the leader.

Despite Trump’s Wisconsin loss, it is not impossible for Donald Trump to win the majority of delegates by Republican convention. It’ll be hard for John Kasich & Ted Cruz to cause much misfortune for Donald Trump in the Northeast.

An email from Josh Putnam, who is a political scientist at University of Georgia said, “The opportunity is there for Ted Cruz or John Kasich to win some of the congressional district delegates or even some at-large delegates in Connecticut and New York if they clear the thresholds.’’

‘’The problem’s that New York is most delegate-rich of remaining April states. It tilts toward Donald Trump so much so — given the data we’ve now— that a bad night for Donald Trump in New York would meaning winning 2/3rd of 95 delegates. That advantage alone would help pad his delegate lead & his plurality, but needs to be maximized in effort to get to 1237. The rest of region is similar,” he added.

Donald Trump’s new target is 40% of popular vote – Nate Silver

The threshold that Donald Trump needs to win the states is growing considerably faster than share of the vote he is getting, which is not growing much at all.

Technically, Donald Trump is chasing the delegates, not wins, however most of remaining states reward at least a few delegates to state-wide winner.

While there’ll continue to be some alteration from state to state, Donald Trump is now going to have to be in the 40s to win. That is a problematic, because as you can see from foot half of the chart, it’s not very clear if Trump’s performance is improving much at all.