Trump’s odds of winning Republican presidential nomination were considerably damaged by his staining loss in Wisconsin, where Senator Ted Cruz walked away with almost all the state’s delegates this week.
However, as race heads towards the East Coast, polls reveals that Donald Trump is probable to regain the substantial ground.
New York (Voting on 19th April), is the next stop in Northeast & the prime prize of all. Polls show that so far Donald Trump is taking the state by a major margin.
Monmouth University poll that is released on Wednesday finds Donald Trump ahead by an impressive margin of 27 points, with 52% of vote. The Ohio Governor, John Kasich is in 2nd with 25% whereas Ted Cruz lags in last with a 17%.
Results are consistent with HuffPost Pollster average that states that Donald Trump is leading New York with 51% of the vote, trailed by John Kasich with 22% & Ted Cruz with 17%.
There’re 95 delegates at stake in the New York’s winner-take-most primary. Nevertheless, if a candidate wins 50% or more of vote in each congressional district & state-wide, he’d take all the state’s delegates. The recent polls suggest that Donald Trump is poised to take all state-wide delegates and is expected to win a generous proportion of delegates at district level.
Pennsylvania that is set to vote on 26th April, holds a substantial number of delegates at 71. Donald Trump leads in state with 39% of vote. Ted Cruz trails him with 30%, followed by John Kasich with a 24%
The remaining states — Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island and Delaware — have far fewer delegates up for grabs. They have not mattered as much in the previous elections, however without a clear GOP nominee at this point in race & an establishment, which is actively fighting the front-runner, candidates are giving more attention to them.
In Maryland, the University of Maryland poll that was released this week discovers Donald Trump ahead of John Kasich by 10 points in state. Maryland has a winner-take-all system at state & district levels.
Despite Trump’s Wisconsin loss, it is not impossible for Donald Trump to win majority of the delegates by the Republican convention — however the odds are building against him. According to the Nate Silver’s blog, FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump will need to win 58% of remaining delegates to reach required 1,237 delegates that are necessary to win the GOP nomination.